Peter
Scoblic

Sam Nunn Distinguished Fellow

Author and strategic foresight expert Peter Scoblic has joined NTI as a Sam Nunn Distinguished Fellow. This position is designed to seed innovation in threat reduction, building on the legacy of NTI Co-Founder and Co-Chair Sam Nunn, who served as chief executive officer from 2001-2017.

Scoblic will support NTI’s program work on nuclear risk management, with a particular focus on the ways in which AI could impact decision-making during a nuclear crisis. Peter has published widely on strategic foresight, including in The New York Times, The Washington Post, Science, Harvard Business Review, and Foreign Affairs. His 2018 article on the CIA’s forecasting office won the Bobby R. Inman Award in Intelligence Studies, and his 2020 article “Learning from the Future” was anthologized in Harvard Business Review’s 10 Must Reads on Organizational Resilience.

A former journalist, Scoblic served as Executive Editor of both The New Republic and Foreign Policy. Early in his career, he was Editor of Arms Control Today.

Previously, Scoblic served as Deputy Staff Director of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, where he worked on approval of the New START agreement and was the chief foreign policy speechwriter for Chairman John Kerry. In 2008, Viking Press published his book, U.S. vs. Them, an intellectual history of the modern conservative movement and its impact on American nuclear policy.

In 2020, Scoblic co-founded Event Horizon Strategies, a foresight consultancy, and he has served as Director of Strategic Foresight for Metaculus, a prediction platform, and as Chief Strategy Officer for FutureSearch, an AI startup.

He has published widely on strategic foresight, including in The New York TimesThe Washington PostScienceHarvard Business Review, and Foreign Affairs. He is currently writing an intellectual history for Simon & Schuster on the quest to quantify decision-making and the effort to preserve a role for human judgment, from early attempts to optimize strategy to recent advances in artificial intelligence.

Scoblic has been a National Fellow at New America, as well as a Senior Fellow in its Future Security program. He has also held affiliations with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Peter received his doctorate from Harvard Business School, where his research on strategic foresight won the Wyss Award for Excellence. He has certificates in wargaming from the Naval War College and the Military Operations Research Society, as well as a certificate in scenario planning from the Oxford Scenarios Programme at Saïd Business School. He received his A.B. in political science, with honors, from Brown University.

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