Nick Ritchie, PhD
Professor of International Security in the Department of Politics and International Relations at the University of York
White Paper: Cascading Disasters, Systemic Risks, and Nuclear War
Research on nuclear weapons use has long focused on the immediate physical effects of a nuclear detonation: blast, heat, radiation, and the climatic disruption known as nuclear winter. Far less attention has been paid to what happens next, including how these shocks spread through the interconnected systems that modern societies depend on.
Today’s food, water, energy, trade, financial, and governance systems are tightly linked and built for efficiency, not resilience. In such systems, even a “limited” nuclear exchange could trigger cascading failures such as soaring food prices, collapsing water and power systems, and economic shocks far beyond any blast zone—overwhelming governments at the very moment they are most needed.
In this white paper, Professor Nick Ritchie brings together research on systemic risk, cascading disasters, civilizational collapse, and the climate-conflict nexus to examine how nuclear weapons use could become a global systemic crisis. He argues that nuclear risk reduction must address both the prevention of use and the strengthening of resilience to prevent a global catastrophe.
This paper was commissioned as part of NTI’s Global Nuclear Effects project. It is one of a series of papers examining underexplored aspects of the consequences of nuclear weapons use.
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Global Nuclear Effects: Economic and Financial Fallout of Nuclear Use
Despite the high stakes, the economic and financial considerations of nuclear weapons use remain underexplored. This paper examines several decades of research on economic and financial effects of nuclear weapons use, and explores the key gaps in our understanding of effects in today’s interconnected world.
Global Effects of Nuclear Conflict: Implications for Nuclear Policymaking, Then and Now
This paper highlights the need for renewed attention to the catastrophic effects of nuclear conflict as a crucial step toward reducing the risk of nuclear use.
Reducing Nuclear Risks: Six Practical Options
This paper outlines six practical options that non-nuclear weapon states could pursue to reduce nuclear risks amid heightened geopolitical tensions. The options were developed based on interviews with nuclear policy experts from around the world. They reflect priority areas where government investment could have the most near- to medium-term impact, as well as the tools and channels through which these efforts could be advanced.