Global Security Newswire

Strikes by U.S. unmanned aerial vehicles have winnowed al-Qaeda's central control structure down to two leaders now considered crucial to the organization's survival, the Washington Post reported on Tuesday (see GSN, Oct. 11).

Ayman al-Zawahiri, who took control of the core network following the May killing of Osama bin Laden, and No. 2 leader Abu Yahya al-Libi are the sole "high-value" al-Qaeda personnel left for CIA airstrikes in Pakistan, antiterrorism and intelligence sources within the U.S. government told the Post. Lower-profile operatives and additional militant organizations are still subject to U.S. monitoring and attacks, the sources said.

Bin Laden's death precipitated an unexpectedly quick weakening of al-Qaeda's central organization, according to officials who said the group was nearly finished upon the leader's demise.

“We have rendered the organization that brought us 9/11 operationally ineffective,” one high-level U.S. antiterrorism official said. Addressing what persists of the Pakistani organization in addition to the two commanders, he said: “Not very much. Not any of the world-class terrorists they once had.”

Al-Zawahiri has apparently resorted to delay tactics, as his organization appears unlikely to regain its footing in the immediate future.

The more charismatic al-Libi is the group's "last best hope for any global resurgence," said former CIA expert Jarret Brachman.

CIA Director David Petraeus and other high-level officials believe the United States should fully eliminate al-Qaeda's core command to prevent it from regaining strength. That stance has played a significant role in the U.S. intelligence service's opposition to the potential transfer of personnel, unmanned aircraft and additional assets from the Pakistan area.

“Now is not the time to let up the pressure,” said a U.S. government source with knowledge of aerial operations in Pakistan. “We’ve got an opportunity to keep them down, and letting up now could allow them to regenerate.”

Still, officials warned that al-Qaeda's global operations are not dependent on the organization's leadership in Pakistan. Yemen-based al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has sought to carry off high-profile strikes such as the unsuccessful bombing of a passenger aircraft as it prepared to land in Detroit on Dec. 25, 2009.

Al-Qaeda's core command has maintained contact with the other branches, but the regional groups have disregarded guidance seen as inconvenient to their own efforts, according to government sources (Greg Miller, Washington Post, Nov. 22).