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Israel Would Not Notify U.S. of Impending Iran Attack: Report

A technician works at Iran’s Tehran Research Reactor earlier this month. Israel does not intend to warn the United States if it decides to launch strikes targeting Iranian atomic assets, two Israeli leaders have reportedly told U.S. officials in private meetings (AP Photo/Iranian Presidency). A technician works at Iran’s Tehran Research Reactor earlier this month. Israel does not intend to warn the United States if it decides to launch strikes targeting Iranian atomic assets, two Israeli leaders have reportedly told U.S. officials in private meetings (AP Photo/Iranian Presidency).

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak have repeatedly said in private meetings with U.S. officials that their government has no intention of giving the United States advance notice of a potential military campaign against atomic installations in Iran, establishing high stakes for trips to Washington planned by both leaders, the Associated Press on Tuesday quoted a U.S. intelligence insider as saying (see GSN, Feb. 28).

The decision against notifying Washington of an impeding assault is intended to minimize U.S. culpability for any Israeli military moves aimed at curbing Iranian activities both governments suspect are geared toward weapons development. Iran insists its nuclear program has no military component.

Netanyahu and Barak have conveyed their government's stance on the matter to U.S. officials such as national security adviser Tom Donilon, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey, National Intelligence Director James Clapper and multiple leading legislators. The United States has sought in past months to persuade Israel that any strike would deal solely a short-term blow to Iran's atomic progress, and the U.S. leaders have attempted to establish greater common ground with Jerusalem on a strategy for addressing the standoff.

Israel determined following talks with Donilon that the United States was not willing to employ armed force against Iran or support an independent Israeli assault, meaning Jerusalem would have to act alone in conducting a strike. A reaffirmation of the stance is probable during visits to Washington by Israeli leaders anticipated through early March, according to the intelligence insider.

One U.S. lawmaker who met with Netanyahu, Barak and other Israeli government personnel said he "got the sense that Israel is incredibly serious about a strike on [Iran's] nuclear weapons program."

"It's their calculus that the administration ... is not serious about a real military consequence to Iran moving forward," House intelligence committee Chairman Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) added during a Monday interview with CNN. "They believe they're going to have to make a decision on their own, given the current posture of the United States."

Some U.S. intelligence and special operations proposals -- such as allowing Jerusalem to launch strikes from U.S. installations -- are aimed at keeping Washington apprised of any Israeli move to attack Iran, according the intelligence insider and a source who served previously with the U.S. government (Kimberly Dozier, Associated Press/Google News, Feb. 28).

The Obama administration is weighing a call by Netanyahu for President Obama to articulate less ambiguous triggers for U.S. military action against Iran, the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday quoted informed insiders as saying. Obama could identify the "red lines" for Iran not to breach in an address he is due to deliver on Sunday to the independent American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the insiders suggested; a number of administration personnel, though, said the president would probably identify any such triggers during a closed-door meeting with Netanyahu slated for Monday (Lee/Solomon, Wall Street Journal, Feb. 28).

Barak on Tuesday departed for Washington, where he is expected to meet over two days with officials including Donilon, Vice President Joseph Biden and Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, the Xinhua News Agency reported.

The discussions would involve "coordination" over "sensitive issues" Netanyahu is expected to address during his trip next week, a high-level political insider said.

Israeli President Shimon Peres is due to travel to the United States this week and to confer with Obama on Sunday (Xinhua News Agency/SINA, Feb. 27). Peres is expected during the talks to advocate in opposition to Israeli military action against Iran, officials with ties to the Israeli leader said in comments reported by Haaretz last week (Yossi Verter, Haaretz, Feb. 23).

Meanwhile, Tehran has demanded that the International Atomic Energy Agency agree to a "modality" plan for addressing concerns over Iranian atomic efforts as a precondition for entry to specific facilities, including the Parchin military installation, the Islamic Republic News Agency reported on Monday. Agency officials have been refused access to the site during two recent visits to Iran.

A November report by the U.N. nuclear watchdog noted indications that a tank for performing explosive detonations relevant to a nuclear-weapon effort had been built at the Parchin site, according to previous reports (Islamic Republic News Agency, Feb. 27).

“Iran is not ruling out access to any military sites, including Parchin," Iranian Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency Ali Asghar Soltanieh told Russia Today.

“There should be a morality, a framework, a term of reference about what exactly they are looking for. We have to have insurance that we will not repeat the same bitter experience that every day they just come and ask for the access,” he said in remarks published on Monday (Russia Today, Feb. 28).

Tehran anticipates that "the dialogue that has started" with the International Atomic Energy Agency "will continue," Reuters quoted Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi as saying on Tuesday.

"There was some disagreement on drafting an initial framework that would set the ground for a new road map as how to proceed," he said.

"We have clearly stated time and time again there are two alternatives in dealing with the Iranian peaceful nuclear program. One way is engagement, cooperation and interaction. The other is confrontation and conflict," Salehi added while attending the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, Switzerland.

"Iran is confident of the peaceful nature of its program and has always insisted on the first alternative. When it comes to our relevant rights and obligations, our consistent position is that Iran does not seek confrontation, nor does it want anything beyond its inalienable, legitimate rights."

Informed sources said Iran in recent discussions with the U.N. agency had refuted all points in a November IAEA safeguards report that pointed to possible nuclear arms operations in the Middle Eastern state. The nuclear watchdog last week issued its latest report on Iran, reaffirming that it continues "to have serious concerns regarding possible military dimensions to Iran's nuclear program."

"Persistent stonewalling" of the agency by Iran is "very troubling," according to Laura Kennedy, the Obama administration envoy to the Conference on Disarmament.

Salehi's comments, she said, are in "stark contrast to Iran's failure to comply with its international obligations regarding its nuclear program."

"Indeed, Iran has moved in the opposite direction by expanding its capacity to enrich uranium to nearly 20 percent and continues to move forward with proscribed enrichment and heavy-water related activities, all in violation of multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions," Kennedy said to the conference. "Iran continues to deny the IAEA and broader international community the transparency and cooperation necessary to verify the exclusively peaceful nature of its nuclear program" (Reuters I, Feb. 28).

 

NTI Analysis

  • Small Nuclear Forces: Five Perspectives

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    The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a partner of the Nuclear Security Project, released a new report called “Small Nuclear Forces: Five Perspectives”. Supported by NTI, the report focuses on nuclear restraint and stability at low numbers from the perspectives of five middle nuclear powers.

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