Global Security Newswire

North Korea announced on Monday that longtime dictator Kim Jong Il had suffered a fatal heart attack, Reuters reported (see GSN, Dec. 15).

"Physical and mental overwork" killed Kim, 69, while he was riding by train to a leadership appointment, according to a televised announcement. The leader died at 8:30 a.m. Saturday following "an advanced acute myocardial infarction, complicated with a serious heart shock," according to the Korean Central News Agency.

Kim in 1994 took over leadership of North Korea following the death of his father, Kim Il Sung. He pressed the nation's nuclear arms buildup in the face of international sanctions against the already isolated and impoverished nation.

The "Dear Leader" is expected to be succeeded by his youngest son, Kim Jong Un. The youngest Kim is the "Great Successor" and "the outstanding leader of our party, army and people," according to the news agency.

There is little available information about Kim Jong Un, other than he is apparently in his late 20s and spent a brief period at a school in Switzerland. He was identified as the next North Korean ruler in the wake of his father's 2008 stroke and has been elevated to key leadership positions since 2010, Reuters reported.

"Kim Jong Un is a pale reflection of his father and grandfather. He has not had the decades of grooming and securing of a power base that Jong Il enjoyed before assuming control from his father," said Asia specialist Bruce Klingner of the Heritage Foundation in Washington.

"(He) may feel it necessary in the future to precipitate a crisis to prove his mettle to other senior leaders or deflect attention from the regime's failings," Klingner added.

Military and government personnel in South Korea were moved to a higher alert status following the news. There were no indications of changes to the posture of the North Korean military, according to Seoul.

The two Koreas have not formally declared an end to the 1950-53 Korean War, and conflicts continue to arise. Pyongyang is believed to have carried out two 2010 strikes that killed 50 South Koreans. The United States also keeps nearly 30,000 troops in the South as a deterrent to North Korean aggression.

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and U.S. President Obama discussed the situation via telephone (Chance/Kim, Reuters I, Dec. 19).

"We remain committed to stability on the Korean Peninsula, and to the freedom and security of our allies," Reuters quoted White House spokesman Jay Carney as saying in a prepared statement (Mark Bendeich, Reuters II, Dec. 19).

The future of the regime could be put in question as Kim Jong Un attempts to take over leadership, according to the Associated Press.

"The most likely scenario for regime collapse has been the sudden death of Kim (Jong Il). We are now in that scenario," said Victor Cha, former Asia affairs chief at the U.S. National Security Council (Matthew Pennington, Associated Press/ABC News, Dec. 19).

The transitional period also raises questions about security of the North's atomic materials and on efforts to resume six-nation negotiations aimed at shuttering Pyongyang's nuclear-weapon program, Reuters reported.

The regime is now believed to hold enough plutonium for six nuclear weapons.

"The reason people are watching closely is not because we expect the North to strike out, it's because events within North Korea could have unsettling ramifications," said Korea specialist Rod Lyon, of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. "If there's a contested succession, it means there's a struggle over things like who controls North Korea's plutonium, not just who controls North Korea's army" (Andrew Quinn, Reuters III, Dec. 19).

“Everything is quiet now, but at the first sign of instability, the immediate question is going to be who’s really in control of the nukes,”  Cha told the Washington Post.

Regarding security, “there’s really no situation worse than this: to have the most opaque regime with nuclear weapons and without a clear leader,” he added. “It doesn’t get more dangerous than that" (Joby Warrick, Washington Post, Dec. 19).

It has been three years since the last round of nuclear talks involving China, Japan, Russia, the United States and both Koreas. After formally abandoning the effort in April 2009, the North in May of that year conducted its second nuclear test and in late 2010 unveiled a uranium enrichment operation that could give it another route for producing nuclear-weapon material. Pyongyang, though, has also expressed its willingness to rejoin the diplomatic process, though only if no conditions are placed on resumption.

Recent bilateral talks between North Korean diplomats and their counterparts from Seoul and Washington have not broken the impasse over conditions for reigniting the full negotiations.

"It is likely that such negotiations (on resuming the six-party talks) would be postponed as North Korea goes through a mourning period, formalized succession process and possible retrenchment of its foreign policies," Reuters quoted Klingner as stating (Quinn, Reuters III).

Kim Jong Un is likely to avoid any moves that might undermine his efforts to demonstrate strength as he assumes leadership, according to AP (Pennington, Associated Press).

The Obama administration is likely to push back initiatives that had been expected this week toward resuming delivery of food to the North and restarting the nuclear talks, sources told AP. Pyongyang had appeared set to pledge a halt to its uranium enrichment operations several days after an anticipated major U.S. offer of food assistance this week, the officials in Washington said.

Washington and allied nations have said the North must cease uranium activities before the talks are rejoined (Matthew Lee, Associated Press II/Google News, Dec. 19).

China, the North's main ally and top economic benefactor, is expected to play a key role in ensuring stability in the region as the transition proceeds in Pyongyang, the New York Times reported.

"At this moment, China might provide the best chance of stability,” said former State Department official Bob Carlin. “They want to be the best informed and have a modicum of influence and have people consulting with them at this moment,” he added. “The rest of us are deaf, dumb, blind and with our arms tied behind our backs.”

Added Seoul-based academic John Delury: “Chinese diplomats are the only ones who can pick up the phone and talk to North Korean counterparts about what is going on, what to expect. This reveals the fatal weakness in Washington and Seoul’s over-reliance on sanctions over the past three years" (Edward Wong, New York Times, Dec. 19).