Global Security Newswire

The International Atomic Energy Agency is set to dispatch a high-level delegation to the Iranian capital on Jan. 28 in an effort to address concerns that the Middle Eastern nation's atomic activities could support nuclear-weapon development, diplomatic officials told the Associated Press on Thursday (see GSN, Jan. 12).

In talks with U.N. nuclear watchdog representatives, Iranian government insiders have expressed willingness to address indications that the nation's nuclear program is geared toward weapons development, two envoys said. The agency in November raised "serious concerns" that the Persian Gulf regional power was seeking a nuclear-weapon capacity; Tehran insists its atomic activities are strictly nonmilitary in nature (see GSN, Nov. 9).

Iran for over three years has obstructed an agency investigation into data suggesting that the Middle Eastern nation has pursued a nuclear-weapon capability. Tehran has not altered its denial of the allegations, but moving to address them in talks would mark a significant shift and spark optimism for progress in the probe, according to AP.

One of the diplomatic sources said IAEA safeguards chief Herman Nackaerts would be accompanied on the trip by two other senior agency officials: Assistant Director General Rafael Grossi and legal affairs head Peri Lynne Johnson. The unusual inclusion of the two high-profile figures suggests the Vienna, Austria-based organization considers the upcoming visit to be of particular importance, according to AP (George Jahn, Associated Press I/Time, Jan. 12).

Still, it was uncertain if Iran would permit the U.N. delegation to travel to sensitive atomic facilities or speak with Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, an atomic specialist thought to be overseeing nuclear bomb-related studies, Western envoys told the Wall Street Journal. The officials added they did not expect Tehran to satisfy all requests by IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano or to resolve suspicions raised by the agency in November (Jay Solomon, Wall Street Journal, Jan. 13).

Meanwhile, Washington has tapped an undisclosed means of contact to warn Iran's supreme religious leader that blocking the Strait of Hormuz would cross a "red line" and prompt a U.S. reaction, the New York Times on Thursday quoted U.S. officials as saying.

The Obama administration's use of the contact with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was intended to stress the degree of U.S. alarm over the intensifying standoff over the waterway, according to the newspaper. Tehran has threatened to block the strait, a key channel for the shipment of Middle Eastern petroleum, in retaliation to a possible Iranian oil embargo (New York Times I, Jan. 12).

Separately, the United States has transferred additional military forces and vessels to the Persian Gulf region, the Los Angeles Times reported on Thursday. The move was aimed at establishing a capability for responding rapidly to a potential military emergency in the dispute with Iran over its atomic efforts, but the decision was not intended to signal any escalation toward conflict, government insiders said.

The forces transfer, endorsed by the White House near the end of 2011, included a helicopter unit and two Army infantry brigades. Kuwait hosts almost 15,000 U.S. military personnel following the move (David Cloud, Los Angeles Times, Jan. 12).

European Union diplomats on Thursday tentatively agreed to impose a ban on Iranian petroleum imports following a half-year grace period, European envoys told the Washington Post. The proposed terms would permit Greece, Italy and Spain to continue receiving Iranian petroleum for a lengthier period due to their especially high reliance on the imports, according to the officials.

The terms must still be approved by the 27 EU governments and finalized by top bloc diplomats at a gathering slated for Jan. 23 (Edward Cody, Washington Post I, Jan. 13).

The United States said it was succeeding in rallying allies around new efforts to isolate Iran, the New York Times reported on Thursday.

“We do mean to close down the central bank of Iran,” a high-level Obama administration official said, noting petroleum provides “the largest source of their revenue." Additional U.S. penalties signed into law at the end of last month have “created uncertainty for people who want to deal with Iran, so they are looking to diversify and choose other sources for their transactions,” the official added.

Several other Persian Gulf countries have pledged to meet additional petroleum demand created by curbs on imports from Iran.

“China and Japan and South Korea are looking for assurances that there will be additional supplies from the Arabian Gulf producers,” said Sadad Ibrahim al-Husseini, former exploration and development head of the state-run petroleum firm Saudi Aramco.

Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates “are all saying: ‘We will do whatever it takes. Yes, we will support you,’” he said.

China has stated it would not target Iran with additional penalties, but the nation has cut unrefined oil purchases from Iran, and Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao could discuss potential boosts in shipments in planned visits to Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

Alternative suppliers could increase output to provide as much as two-thirds of the petroleum transferred from Iran, according to experts. Other Middle Eastern nations “could replace the Iranian oil for about a month, and then you would have to look to the strategic reserves from the West, which could represent another month,” former Algerian Energy Minister Chakib Khelil said. “Then you could have undersupply, and oil prices could get jacked up” (Landler/Krauss, New York Times II, Jan. 12).

Japan on Friday appeared to step back from a Thursday pledge by Finance Minister Jon Azumi to reduce petroleum purchases from Iran, AP reported.

Azumi's statement represented a “personal view,” and Tokyo must consult with the Japanese private sector before reaching any determination on the matter, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiniko Noda said.

“Japan’s basic stance is to resolve such matters diplomatically and peacefully,” Noda said. "We need to consult with the business community, and we need to work out details with U.S. officials. We have to think about the implications for Japanese banks, and what measures are needed to resolve possible negative impact” (Associated Press II/Washington Post, Jan. 13).

South Korea said it would receive a briefing from U.S. delegates next week on Washington's economic campaign against Tehran, the Yonhap News Agency reported. State Department special adviser for nonproliferation and arms control Robert Einhorn, Treasury Assistant Secretary Daniel Glaser and other officials are expected to begin a three-day visit on Monday, according to the South Korean Foreign Ministry (Yonhap News Agency, Jan. 12).

The U.S. State Department on Thursday announced penalties against three additional firms believed to have carried out transactions with Iranian energy entities (U.S. State Department release, Jan. 12).

A group of Republican and Democratic lawmakers addressed the nuclear dispute with Iran during meetings with politicians and officials in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) said on Thursday.

"It is clear from our discussions ... that we all strongly share concerns about the threat posed by Iran, as well as the strategic goal of preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapons capability," Cantor said in a statement. "It is a matter of finding the best means to that end, and coordinating our efforts with our partners in the region" (U.S. Representative Eric Cantor release, Jan. 12).

Visiting Ankara, Iranian parliament speaker Ali Larijani on Thursday said Tehran was in support of potentially convening atomic discussions in Turkey, the Xinhua News Agency reported.

"Our Turkish brothers think that negotiations should take place in Turkey, and of course we are positive for holding these talks in Turkey," the former top Iranian nuclear negotiator said (Xinhua News Agency, Jan. 12).

In a commentary published on Wednesday by Foreign Policy magazine, former IAEA safeguards chief Olli Heinonen called for the revival of a uranium exchange proposal aimed at addressing the nuclear standoff (Olli Heinonen, Foreign Policy, Jan. 11).

President Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the dispute during a telephone conversation on Thursday (White House release, Jan. 12).

Efforts to ramp up economic pressure on Iran are achieving unprecedented success, Netanyahu told the Australian newspaper.

"For the first time, I see Iran wobble under the sanctions that have been adopted and especially under the threat of strong sanctions on their central bank," he said.

"If these sanctions are coupled with a clear statement by the international community, led by the U.S., to act militarily to stop Iran if sanctions fail, Iran may consider not going through the pain," Netanyahu said. "There's no point gritting your teeth if you're going to be stopped anyway" (Greg Sheridan, The Australian, Jan. 14).

Russian Presidential Security Council chief Nikolai Patrushev said the possibility of U.S. military action against Iran poses a "real danger," Agence France-Presse reported on Thursday.

"There is a likelihood of military escalation of the conflict, and Israel is pushing the Americans towards it," Patrushev told the Russian newspaper Kommersant.

"At present, the U.S. sees Iran as its main problem. They are trying to turn Tehran from an enemy into a supportive partner, and to achieve this, to change the current regime by whatever means," he said. "They use both economic embargo and massive help to the opposition forces."

"For years we have been hearing practically next week that the Iranians are going to create an atomic bomb, (but) still nobody has proved the existence of a military component of Iran's nuclear program," the official added (Agence France-Presse/Indian Express, Jan. 12).

A U.S. attack incorporating the nation's largest bunker-buster weapon would only have a low probability of destroying Iran's underground Qum uranium enrichment site, Reuters on Thursday quoted analysts as saying (see GSN, Nov. 16, 2011; William Maclean, Reuters, Jan. 12).

Elsewhere, Iran performed funeral rites for an atomic scientist killed in a bomb attack this week, the Post reported on Friday.

“We will never disregard punishment for the individuals who committed this crime and the elements behind its scene,” Khamenei said in written remarks. The Iranian religious leader attributed the strike to U.S. and Israeli intelligence services (Thomas Erdbrink, Washington Post II, Jan. 13).