Charles D. Ferguson
Scientific Consultant, Fellow for Science and Technology, The James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
After a little less than one year in office, the Bush administration completed a congressionally mandated Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), which will guide U.S. nuclear force planning over the next decade. The Department of Defense (DOD) incorporated this review into a broader examination of the U.S. military. The NPR reiterates that U.S. nuclear weapons play a fundamental role in enhancing U.S. force projection capabilities. While the administration was forthcoming with key findings of the NPR, it declined to publish openly the body of the report, due to classification considerations. Leaked portions of the full report sparked widespread concern that the United States could develop new nuclear weapons and lower the threshold of nuclear use. The administration countered the public reaction, claiming the review largely represents a continuation of past nuclear policy.
In key respects, the new NPR reflects policy developments from the Clinton and first Bush administrations. First, although it acknowledges the much improved U.S.-Russian relationship, this review recognizes that U.S. nuclear planning must account for the fact that Russia is the only nuclear weapon state that could conceivably destroy the United States. Second, the NPR lists six other states as potential targets for U.S. nuclear weapons. Third, the NPR emphasizes the objective of maintaining and enhancing U.S. military flexibility. Fourth, it outlines a new triad consisting of offensive strike systems (which partly include the old strategic nuclear triad), defensive systems, and a responsive defense infrastructure. Fifth, the NPR emphasizes U.S. concerns about hardened and deeply buried bunkers that could contain weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Sixth, it supports maintaining a large reserve stockpile of nuclear weapons. The new NPR mainly differs from the previous administration's nuclear policy by rejecting arms control agreements, such as the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). It also calls for significantly shortening the time required to prepare for renewed nuclear testing.
On December 31, 2001, the Bush administration submitted to Congress the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR). Congressionally mandated, this review represented months of Department of Defense (DOD) analysis to determine U.S. nuclear force planning over the next five to 10 years. The Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), the civilian government agency charged with development and oversight of U.S. nuclear weapons, worked closely with DOD in preparing the NPR.
At the earliest stages of preparing the review, the DOD decided to conduct a comprehensive examination by tightly coupling the NPR with the Quadrennial Defense Review, which occurs every four years and examines all aspects of the United States military. The NPR, therefore, formulated a 21st-century strategic posture that integrated nuclear weapons into broader aspects of defense planning. As a result, nuclear weapons explicitly occupy only one end of a continuum of military force options.
On January 9, 2002, the DOD held a press conference to give an overview of the NPR. At that time, the DOD released the unclassified executive summary of the review, a set of slides highlighting the major points of the NPR, and a transcript of the press conference. However, the DOD did not publish the body of the NPR, which contains some classified material. On March 9, 2002, the Los Angeles Times and The New York Times revealed that they had obtained the full report. Soon thereafter, substantial excerpts appeared on the Internet.
Press attention and leaked portions of the NPR generally stimulated two contradictory reactions:
Fear that the Bush administration would develop new nuclear weapons and move closer to conducting pre-emptive nuclear strikes against a significant number of targets.
A view that the new NPR does not represent a significant departure from the 1994 Nuclear Posture Review and other nuclear policy studies performed by the Clinton administration.
In fact, comparing the new NPR to the prior administration's nuclear policy shows that, by and large, the George W. Bush administration's NPR continues and somewhat modifies many of the policies in the previous NPR and in the Clinton and George H. W. Bush administrations' pronouncements. Nevertheless, significant differences stand out.
Since the end of the Cold War, U.S. nuclear strategy has evolved to adapt to the new security environment. This change began to take shape in the first Bush administration around 1991 and continued along similar lines under the Clinton administration.
During the Cold War, Russia was the principal nuclear threat to the United States. The demise of the Soviet Union shifted U.S. nuclear weapons planning away from mainly targeting Russia. Nonetheless, Russia remains the only nation that can conceivably destroy the United States because of the size of its nuclear arsenal. Moreover, uncertainty over the future course of Russian foreign policy motivates the United States to keep a massive nuclear weapons reserve force. For these reasons, Russia still occupies a place on the list of potential targets for U.S. nuclear weapons. In addition, the new NPR explicitly lists six other countries as targets: North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and China. This nuclear targeting list reflects previous administrations' planning.
Taking these threats into account, the NPR discusses U.S. plans to reduce operationally deployed strategic nuclear weapons to a level of 3,800 warheads by 2007 and 1,700-2,200 by 2012. These reductions primarily follow Clinton administration plans under the 1997 Helsinki Protocol, intended for a possible START III arms reduction agreement, with the important difference that warhead dismantlement was not included in the Bush-Putin treaty signed at the May 2002 Presidential Summit.
Aside from deliberately developing targeting plans against countries of concern, the NPR calls for greater emphasis on adaptive planning. Such planning will allow the United States to produce war plans quickly in response to contingencies that could arise throughout the world. This development complements the U.S. military's decision to move from a so-called "threat-based" to a "capabilities-based" defense system, which would purportedly give the United States more flexibility. The roots of this defense philosophy go back as far as the early 1990s and beyond.
U.S. strategic nuclear weapons have traditionally been organized in a triad of land (intercontinental ballistic missiles), sea (submarine launched ballistic missiles), and air (bombers) forces. The new NPR emphasizes that nuclear weapons will continue to play a fundamental role in war fighting. It outlines a new triad in which the old triad occupies part of the offensive strike systems leg. Improved conventional strike weapons round out this leg. The second leg includes active and passive defenses in which missile defenses are a fundamental component. Finally, the third leg focuses on developing a defense infrastructure that can respond rapidly to changes in the security environment. In essence, the new triad boils down to a repackaging of concepts from previous administrations.
The new NPR discusses at length the potential need for new weapons systems, especially to counter threats posed by hardened and deeply buried bunkers that could house weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The DOD and NNSA are studying both nuclear and conventional weapons systems for these missions. Critics are concerned that this research could lead to new nuclear testing. To a large extent, this study mirrors previous administrations' concerns and research, which led to the development of the B-61-11 bunker busting-bomb, done without nuclear testing, during the 1990s.
The new NPR primarily departs from past nuclear policy by downplaying and, in key instances, repudiating arms control agreements. The stated objective of this policy is to give the United States maximum flexibility.
While the Clinton administration worked to preserve the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, the Bush administration renounced this treaty expressly to remove limits on missile defense development. However, missile defense tests will not reach those limits for several years. Although the Clinton administration supported limited missile defense systems, the new NPR calls for expanding and increasing the layers of these defenses.
The previous administration advocated ratification and entry into force of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). Though the present administration adheres to the nuclear testing moratorium, it will not seek passage of the CTBT. The new NPR also proposes to reduce the time required to prepare for renewed testing from a two-to-three-year period to much less than one year.
U.S. Nuclear Posture Review
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