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Indo-Pakistani Military Standoff: Why It Isn't Over Yet

Gaurav Kampani

Senior Research Associate at Monterey Institute of International Studies

Jammu and Kashmir: Ethnic Mix of a Disputed State 
Source: Kashmir Study Group, Kashmir: A Way Forward, Feb. 2000 Jammu and Kashmir: Ethnic Mix of a Disputed State Source: Kashmir Study Group, Kashmir: A Way Forward, Feb. 2000
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Introduction

The recent crisis between India and Pakistan, which again raised fears of a war between the two nuclear powers, has receded. A combination of international pressure and military threats from India led to a shift in Pakistani policy; India, in turn, has initiated moves to relax tensions. Though war has been averted in this current crisis, basic, critical problems still exist between the two South Asian powers. Central issues include India's mistrust of Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, the presence of Pakistani-backed militants in Indian-controlled Kashmir, and the upcoming elections in Kashmir. As the two countries continue to assess each other's actions and behavior, a precarious situation remains.

The possibility of war in South Asia, which seemed likely in the last week of May and early June, now seems remote. Pakistan has caved in to international pressure and India's war threats and apparently stopped cross-border infiltrations of civilian combatants into Indian-controlled Kashmir. In an acknowledgement of the shift in Pakistan's Kashmir policy, India has withdrawn its naval armada that was massed in the North Arabian Sea. India's Vajpayee government has also lifted the overflight ban imposed on Pakistani commercial jets in the wake of the terrorist attack by Pakistani-sponsored militants on India's parliament in December 2001. In a further attempt to relax tensions, New Delhi has hinted that it will upgrade diplomatic relations with Islamabad in the near future. These tension-relieving steps and the success of the intense conflict-prevention efforts of the international community led by the United States would suggest that the crisis that brought India and Pakistan, two nuclear powers, to the brink of war, is winding down. However, a closer analysis suggests that tensions continue to lurk beneath the surface.

Despite India and Pakistan's decision to end aggressive patrolling by their respective navies, both countries continue to keep their armies and air forces deployed in forward areas. And although Islamabad has suggested that both countries demobilize their forces, New Delhi has rejected the proposal. Instead, Indian government officials from the prime minister on down have reiterated that India will not undertake demobilization until it can verify that Pakistan's verbal assurances have been translated into "hard" evidence on the ground.

There are three major reasons the Indian government is unwilling to accept Pakistan's assurances at face value.

First, the Vajpayee government does not trust Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf and the military-intelligence establishment that he represents. It was Musharraf who sabotaged Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee's peace efforts at the Lahore Summit by initiating intrusions into Indian territory, which led to the Kargil war in the summer of 1999. Similarly, Indian leaders consider Musharraf's refusal to give up support for the cross-border insurgency in Kashmir as the reason behind the failure of the Agra Summit in June 2001. Likewise, in January 2002, Musharraf made a public pledge not to allow Pakistan to be used as a base for terrorist activities anywhere in the world, including Kashmir; but he soon reneged on that promise. After a brief respite in January and February 2002, the Pakistani military resumed infiltration operations into Indian-controlled Kashmir.

Given the empirical record of Pakistan's broken promises, Musharraf's credibility is at its nadir in New Delhi. Several Indian hardliners suspect that Pakistan's military has made a policy reversal in Kashmir against its will--not because it was convinced of the folly of its erstwhile policy of sponsoring insurgents to wage a sub-conventional war against the Indian army, but because it was trapped between the wedge of international pressure and impending Indian military action. Hence, instead of ordering an immediate demobilization, the Indian government would prefer to wait and verify that the changes in Islamabad's Kashmir policy are permanent.

Second, India is not satisfied with Pakistan's pledge to halt cross-border infiltrations. The Vajpayee government wants the militant camps and related infrastructure in Pakistan dismantled. Above all, Indian leaders want the Pakistani government to disband the militant groups. India insists that Islamabad accept and implement the latter two demands because it fears that Pakistan's military regime could renege on its promises after India demobilizes its forces or once U.S. political attention strays. In such circumstances, India would have gained little through its policy of military mobilization, and conditions in Kashmir would worsen once again. However, Pakistan regards the militant groups as a potential military resource: militants could serve as a potential fifth column against the Indian military in the event of another Indo-Pakistani war. Hence, the issue of disbanding the militant groups is likely to remain a divisive issue in Indo-Pakistani relations.

Finally, there is the problem of elections in Kashmir, which the Indian government plans to hold in October 2002. The majority of insurgents fighting the Indian government in Kashmir are opposed to an election within the framework of the Indian constitution. Pakistan's military-intelligence agencies, too, oppose the idea of elections without tripartite negotiations between the Indian government, the militant groups, and the Pakistani government. Although New Delhi has indicated a willingness to negotiate with the Kashmir-based militant groups that pledge to abandon violence, the Indian government rejects the idea of making Pakistan, which it regards as "part of the problem of terrorism," party to any proposed negotiations.

Because of Pakistan's past support for insurgent groups, there are now an estimated 2,500-3,000 militants in Indian-controlled Kashmir. The militant groups have a history of assassinating moderates who oppose the armed insurgency or who consider participating in the electoral process. Pakistan's military-intelligence establishment has also played a role in sidelining those militant leaders who want greater autonomy for Kashmir under the aegis of the Indian constitution or those who favor independence. Pakistan's agenda all along has been to force India to hold a plebiscite in which India's Kashmiri population would choose either India or Pakistan to govern the region. As a result, India fears that, despite the Pakistan military's pledge to halt cross-border infiltrations, Pakistani intelligence agencies could manipulate the militants already present in Indian-controlled territories and arrange to have them sabotage the electoral process. Should Indian fears prove to be accurate, tensions could flare up again.

Come October, India's cabinet committee on security will once again assess whether there has been a positive change in Islamabad's behavior. A positive assessment from New Delhi will likely pave the way for military demobilization and a resumption of diplomatic dialogue with Pakistan on all issues, including Kashmir. However, if evidence on the ground suggests that Pakistan has backed out of its promises, the Vajpayee government will be confronted with two uncomfortable options: either unilaterally demobilize despite Pakistani bad-faith or initiate some sort of military action against Pakistan before the onset of winter. Since unilateral demobilization would result in a loss of credibility for the Vajpayee government, and since the Indian military cannot be kept mobilized indefinitely, military strikes against Pakistan could become the favored option by default.

If this latter scenario comes to pass, the war clouds that have temporarily receded could return just as swiftly to threaten peace in South Asia.

Resources

Websites

  • Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monitoring Proliferation Threats Program, Chronology of Indian Missile Development, http://cns.miis.edu.
  • Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monitoring Proliferation Threats Program, Chronology of Pakistani Missile Development, http://cns.miis.edu.
  • Federation of American Scientists, India-Pakistan Nuclear Crisis, www.fas.org.
  • Fourth Freedom Forum, South Asia and the Bomb, www.fourthfreedom.org.
  • Acronym Institute, India and Pakistan Missile Tests, 1999, www.acronym.org.uk.

Reports

  • Gaurav Kampani, "India's Compellance Strategy: Calling Pakistan's Nuclear Bluff in Kashmir," (Monterey, CA: Center for Nonproliferation Studies, June 2002), http://cns.miis.edu.
  • Gaurav Kampani, "Placing the Indo-Pakistani Military Standoff in Perspective," (Monterey, CA: Center for Nonproliferation Studies, April 2002), http://cns.miis.edu.
  • P. Cotta-Ramusino and M. Martellini, "Nuclear safety, nuclear stability, and nuclear strategy in Pakistan," A concise report by a visit by Landau Network – Centro Volta, 21 January 2002, http://lxmi.mi.infn.it.

Journal Articles

  • Brahma Chellaney, "Fighting Terrorism in Southern Asia," International Security, Vol.26, No.3, Winter 2001/2002, pp.94-116.
  • Samina Ahmed, "The United States and Terrorism in Southwest Asia," International Security, Vol.26, No.3, Winter 2001/2002, pp.79-93.
  • Clayton Bowen and Daniel Woulven, "Command and Control Challenges in South Asia," The Nonproliferation Review 6 (Spring/Summer 1999), http://cns.miis.edu.
  • Mario Carranza, "An Impossible Game: Stable Nuclear Deterrence After the Indian and Pakistani Tests," Nonproliferation Review 6 (Spring/Summer 1999), http://cns.miis.edu.
  • P.R. Chari, "India's Nuclear Doctrine: Confused Ambitions," Nonproliferation Review 7 (Fall/Winter 2000), http://cns.miis.edu.
  • P.R. Chari, "Nuclear Restraint and Risk Reduction in South Asia," 2001, www.ceip.org.
  • Jaswant Singh, "Against Nuclear Apartheid," Foreign Affairs (September/October 1998), pp. 41-52.
  • Shelley A. Stahl and Geoffrey Kemp, Arms Control and Weapons Proliferation in the Middle East and South Asia (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1992).
  • Strobe Talbott, "Dealing with the Bomb in South Asia," Foreign Affairs March/April 1999), pp. 110-123.
  • Samina Ahmed, "The (Nuclear) Testing of Pakistan," Current History (December 1998), pp. 407-411.
  • Samina Ahmed, "Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons Program: Turning Points and Nuclear Choices," International Security 23 (Spring 1999), pp. 178-204.

Books

  • Ahmed Rashid, Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia, (London: Yale University Press, 2000).
  • From Surprise to Reckoning: The Kargil Review Committee Report, (New Delhi: Sage Publications, 1999).
  • Sumit Ganguly, The Crisis in Kashmir: Portents of War, Hopes, and Peace, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997).
  • Sumit Ganguly, The Origins of War in South Asia: Indo-Pakistani Conflicts Since 1947, (London: Westview Press, 1986).
  • Gary Milhollin, "India's Missiles – With a Little Help from Our Friends," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (May 1989), pp. 31-36.
  • Pratap Bhanu Mehta, "India: The Nuclear Politics of Self-Esteem," Current History (December 1998), pp. 403-406.
  • George Perkovich, India's Nuclear Bomb: The Impact on Global Proliferation, updated edition (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 2001).

Documents

  • "In Musharraf's Words: 'A Day of Reckoning'," New York Times, 12 January 2002, www.nytimes.com.
  • "Text: India's Reaction to Musharraf Speech," New York Times, 13 January 2002, www.nytimes.com.
  • U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell's testimony before the U.S. Senate, "Testimony at Budget Hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee," U.S. Department of State, 5 February 2002, www.state.gov.
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This material is produced independently for NTI by the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies and does not necessarily reflect the opinions of and has not been independently verified by NTI or its directors, officers, employees, or agents.

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In light of the recent crisis between India and Pakistan, Gaurav Kampani discusses why the international community should still be concerned about a nuclear exchange in South Asia.

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