Jaime M. Yassif, Ph.D.
Vice President, Global Biological Policy and Programs
Global Catastrophic Biological Risks
Preventing global catastrophic biological risks (GCBRS)
Challenge
The risk of a catastrophic biological event is growing due to rapid advances in technology, increased global capability to create and engineer pathogens that could cause a pandemic, and the potential for interest in biological weapons by powerful actors, including states and terrorist groups.
Action
Make the case for governments, funders, researchers, and investors to prioritize GCBRs; develop innovative solutions for preventing, detecting, and mitigating global catastrophic biological events; and bolster efforts to prevent the development and use of biological weapons.
Results
Greater awareness of GCBRs among security and public health leaders; commitments and actions by policymakers and practitioners; and a stronger international norms against the development and use of biological weapons.
Global Biological Catastrophic Risks (GCBRs) are biological risks of unprecedented scale that have the potential to cause such significant damage to human civilization that they undermine its long-term potential. Uncontrolled, the impact of a global biological catastrophic event would cause tremendous loss of life; societal instability; prolonged damage to governments and economies, damage to international relationships; and would threaten global security.
GCBRs are increasing for several reasons. First, rapid advances in technology are making it easier to manipulate biological organisms and to create and engineer pathogens and other biological agents. These developments are coupled with potential state and non-state interest in biological weapons. In parallel, the legitimate global bioscience research enterprise continues to conduct experiments involving the creation and enhancement of pathogens with pandemic potential. Finally, laboratory accidents and errors demonstrate the need to proactively identify risks and guard against accidental release.
The risks are further exacerbated by global travel and trade, lack of pandemic preparedness capability, and dependence on a suite of interconnected essential services—power, water, food, health care, telecommunications and the global financial system—that are vulnerable to devastating disruptions.
Unfortunately, the drivers of GCBRs and their potential consequences are not well understood or prioritized by policymakers. In recent years, national governments and the international community have proven unprepared to combat naturally emerging regional epidemics. They are even less prepared for potential future global pandemics, including deliberate or accidental high-consequence biological events that could be unprecedented in scale. GCBRs pose a daunting challenge, and meaningful reduction of these risks will require concerted efforts by governments, international organizations, civil society and the private sector.
NTI’s actions to reduce GCBRs consist of three primary lines of effort:
1. Building a stronger case for decision-makers to prioritize action to counter GCBRs — among governments, international organizations, and global leaders in security, public health, and disaster response.
- NTI is engaging in GCBR-focused tabletop exercises to raise awareness among global decision-makers and to develop concrete actions for preventing, detecting and responding to global catastrophic biological risks.
- NTI has recommended more coordinated international operational response capability and disease information sharing for high consequence biological events, including GCBRs.
- NTI is releasing a Global Health Security Index to establish benchmarks of national preparedness, including for GCBRs, across 195 countries, in partnership with the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and with the research power of the Economist Intelligence Unit.
2. Establishing new forums focused on p
reventing the development and use of biological weapons by powerful actors and strengthening the Biological Weapons Convention.
- NTI is engaging international partners to strengthen the Biological Weapons Convention, including improving its financial stability and supporting substantive measures to bolster the norm against bioweapons development and use.
- NTI is conducting a multi-year initiative focused on reducing GCBRs and bioweapons risks posed by powerful actors, including states and terrorists. This effort will include hosting international dialogues and conducting focused research on risk drivers and innovative solutions.
- NTI is partnering with public and private sector leaders to catalyze biosecurity actions and technical approaches to reduce risks associated with advances in technology and the global bioscience research enterprise, through our Biosecurity Innovation and Risk Reduction Initiative.
3. Developing innovative solutions for early detection and rapid response to GCBRs.
- NTI is partnering with the Center for Global Development to research and develop proposed operational response capabilities that could effectively contain large-scale pandemics and GCBRs.
- NTI is developing a pilot project to support a rapid disease detection framework, including examining methods for real-time identification of emerging infectious diseases, high consequence pathogens of unknown origin, and potentially engineered agents that pose global catastrophic risks.
- NTI is exploring approaches that could reshape the fragmented ecosystem for medical countermeasure (MCM) development and further incentivize industry-government partnerships to speed MCM development, distribution and dispensing during a high-consequence event.
2024
BWC at 50: Taking Bold Steps to Secure the Future
2025 marks 50 years of the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC). It faces significant challenges and there is an urgent need to modernize the BWC, ensuring it keeps pace with scientific developments and reinforces global biosecurity.
NTI | bio Champions Effort to Enhance Transparency to Strengthen the Biological Weapons Convention
The international community remains unprepared for the potential misuse of modern bioscience and biotechnology tools to develop biological weapons. NTI | bio convened more than 30 experts for a workshop on enhancing transparency for bioscience research and development and bolstering confidence in compliance with the Biological Weapons Convention.
2023
NTI | bio Convenes Workshop on Disincentivizing State Bioweapons Development and Use
NTI | bio convened a workshop on “Disincentivizing State Bioweapons Development and Use” a week ahead of the Biological Weapons Convention Working Group meetings in Geneva, Switzerland.
NTI | bio Holds Congressional Event on Convergence of AI and the Life Sciences
NTI | bio hosted a lunchtime event on Capitol Hill to discuss how Congress and other decisionmakers can take action to mitigate emerging risks associated with AI-bio capabilities.
Urgent Steps Needed to Safeguard Rapidly Advancing AI-Bioscience Technologies
Amid significant advances in artificial intelligence (AI), a new NTI | bio report recommends urgent action and oversight by governments, industry, and the scientific community to reduce risks associated with AI-enabled capabilities to engineer living systems.
NTI | bio Vice President Urges Congressional Action to Prevent Future Pandemics
Jaime Yassif called on government leaders to take urgent steps to strengthen biosafety and biosecurity policy and practices during a hearing convened by the U.S. House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic.
Testimony of Jaime M. Yassif at U.S. House Hearing on “Strengthening Biosafety and Biosecurity Standards: Protecting Against Future Pandemics”
Testimony of Jaime M. Yassif at U.S. House Hearing on "Strengthening Biosafety and Biosecurity Standards: Protecting Against Future Pandemics"
Preventing the Next Biological Catastrophe: A Tabletop Exercise Summary
New Digital Report Warns that World is Not Prepared for the Next Pandemic and Urges Bold Action
A new digital report and companion summary detail the findings and recommendations developed from a tabletop exercise held by NTI | bio and the Munich Security Conference.
NTI | bio Experts Outline Strategies for Preventing State Bioweapons Development and Use
The authors write about effective strategies for preventing biological events that could rise to the level of a global catastrophe by disincentivizing states from bioweapons development and use.
NTI | bio VP Calls for Strengthening Preparedness in National Academies Discussion on National Laboratory Systems
Dr. Jaime Yassif discussed features of a model national laboratory system for effective public health emergency preparedness and response at a National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) workshop this March.
2022
NTI Statement and FAQ Regarding NTI-Munich Security Conference 2021 Tabletop Exercise on Reducing High-Consequence Biological Threats
Following the recent detection of monkeypox cases across multiple countries, NTI’s report on the exercise has appeared in a number social media outlets, noting that the associated fictional scenario featured a monkeypox outbreak with a start date that roughly coincides with the current, ongoing outbreak.
NTI and Munich Security Conference Convene Global Leaders for Fourth Annual Tabletop Exercise on Reducing High-Consequence Biological Threats
NTI Co-Chairman and CEO Ernest J. Moniz and Munich Security Conference (MSC) Chairman Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger virtually convened 19 global leaders and experts on February 17, 2022 for a high-level tabletop exercise focused on reducing high-consequence biological threats.
2021
NTI | bio Expert Calls on U.S. House Leaders to Prioritize Biosecurity
NTI | bio Senior Fellow Jaime Yassif, Ph.D., called on government leaders to take urgent steps to prevent future catastrophic biological events during a Dec. 8, 2021 hearing.
Strengthening Global Systems to Prevent and Respond to High-Consequence Biological Threats
A new NTI | bio report released today on the sidelines of the Biological Weapons Convention Meeting of States Parties, “Strengthening Global Systems to Prevent and Respond to High-Consequence Biological Threats,” outlines actionable recommendations for the international community to bolster prevention and response capabilities for high-consequence biological events.
NTI | bio Workshop Advances Efforts to Strengthen International Capabilities to Investigate High-Consequence Biological Events of Unknown Origin
NTI | bio hosted a workshop to explore the prospect of a new, internationally credible “Joint Assessment Mechanism” to rapidly investigate high-consequence biological events of unknown origin.
NTI | Bio, Munich Security Conference Convene Global Leaders for Annual Tabletop Exercise on Reducing High-Consequence Biological Threats
NTI | Bio, Munich Security Conference Convene Global Leaders for Tabletop Exercise on High-Consequence Biological Threats
2020
NTI | bio Partners with Africa CDC to Build COVID-19 Biosafety and Biosecurity Capacity in Western Africa
COVID-19 highlighted the urgency of preparing for biological threats, including preventing future outbreaks whether naturally occurring, deliberate, or accidental
New Report Offers Actions to Prevent Catastrophic Biological Risk
National and global leaders have a responsibility to take action now to prevent future biological events that could match or surpass the impact of COVID-19.
Preventing Global Catastrophic Biological Risks
NTI | bio convened senior leaders from around the world for a scenario-based tabletop exercise designed to identify gaps in global capabilities to prevent and respond to high-consequence biological events.
Past Event
Preventing Global Catastrophic Biological Risks: Launch Event for NTI’s 2020 Munich Security Conference Tabletop Exercise Report
Virtual
NTI | bio Convenes Stakeholders to Strengthen Global Biosecurity Architecture and Prevent Biological Risks
Biotechnology research is essential for reducing pandemic threats and supporting the broader global health and development agendas
New COVID-19 Policy Mapping Tool and Database Released to Help Inform Decision Making
New COVID-19 Policy Mapping Tool and Database Released to Help Inform Decision Making
NTI, COVID-Local join organizations and public health experts in effort to bring clarity to key metrics guiding coronavirus response
These shared metrics and guidance will be incorporated into the COVID-19 response resources for local leaders provided on COVID-Local.org.
COVID-Local: New Metrics Offer Consolidated Guide for Safely Re-opening Communities Across the U.S.
As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, local leaders across the United States are working to bolster public health capacity
Past Event
Webinar on COVID-19 Frontline Guide for Decision-Makers
Past Event
Preventing Global Catastrophic Biological Risks
Munich Security Conference
2019
A Spreading Plague: New Report Offers Recommendations for Responding to a Deliberate Biological Event
International leaders and organizations are unprepared to react with the kind of response needed to investigate and identify the pathogen, prevent the spread of disease.
NTI | bio Focuses on High-Consequence, Deliberate, and Global Catastrophic Biological Risks During World Health Assembly Side Event
NTI experts joined government officials and experts from around the world in Geneva at a side event on preventing future high-consequence biological events.
2018
NTI Receives Grant to Further Efforts to Counter Global Catastrophic Biological Risks; Welcomes Dr. Jaime Yassif
Dr. Jaime Yassif will join the NTI | bio team as a Senior Fellow to implement new projects funded by this grant.
NTI | bio Launches New Interactive on Biological Threat Preparedness
NTI bio publishes interactive infographic exploring major biological vulnerabilities.
NTI | bio Brings Clade X to the Hill: A Pandemic Simulation
NTI | bio and partners brought together congressional staff to highlight the challenges of detecting and responding to an outbreak caused by a novel pathogen.
NTI Launches NTI | bio Advisory Group
NTI’s recently expanded Global Biological Policy and Programs (NTI | bio) is launching a high-level advisory group this week.
NTI and Partners Host Technical Workshops on Radiological Risks
NTI and partners hosted two workshops for researchers and hospital staff on the risks associated with using cesium-137 irradiators for research and blood irradiation.
2017
New Analysis: Biological Risks Must Be Among Top Security Priorities
Beth Cameron responds to a new framework published by Johns Hopkins that aims to advance scientific dialogue about potential global catastrophic biological risks.