Nathan A. Paxton, PhD
Senior Director, Global Biological Policy and Programs
Reducing State Biological Weapons Risks
Strengthening international capabilities to uphold the norm against bioweapons development and use.
Challenge
State bioweapons risks are increasing due to rapid scientific advances and geopolitical tensions, while international institutions lack adequate tools to prevent development and use.
Action
Develop and promote policies and tools to shape state intentions, reduce misperceptions, and make bioweapons development and use strategically unattractive.
Results
Stronger international mechanisms to uphold the norm against bioweapons, including capabilities to better detect, attribute, and hold states accountable for bioweapons development or use.
The risk of biological weapons development and use by states is rising as rapid scientific and technological advances are making it easier to develop increasingly sophisticated and powerful biological weapons. At the same time, growing geopolitical tensions are exacerbating mistrust among states, increasing risks of misperceptions and arms racing behaviors. These developments are challenging the effectiveness of traditional arms control measures.
While the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) remains the cornerstone of international efforts to uphold the norm against biological weapons, it faces significant limitations. These limitations include a small budget leading to limited operational capacity, the lack of a robust mechanism for assessing compliance, and a consensus-based decision-making process that can stall progress. To address these issues, it is critical to strengthen the global biosecurity architecture that reinforces transparency, attribution, and accountability measures.
Reducing the risk of state-led biological weapons development and use will require establishing much stronger disincentives for actions that violate international law, while increasing incentives for compliance. Through several lines of effort, NTI is working with international partners to develop and promote practical, innovative policy and technical solutions to make biological weapons unattractive to states:
- Enhancing Transparency in Bioscience Research and Development: This initiative focuses on improving visibility into bioscience and biotechnology research and development to reduce misperceptions regarding compliance with the global norm against bioweapons, and associated risks of arms-racing. Advancing transparency measures—both within and adjacent to the BWC—can build trust among states, strengthen BWC compliance, and create pathways to detect signals of illicit bioweapons development activity.
- Disincentivizing State Bioweapons Development and Use: This initiative aims to develop and promote practical solutions that can reshape the cost-benefit calculus of states to make biological weapons development and use unattractive. To advance this goal, NTI | bio aims to catalyze the creation of an epistemic community to explore policy and technical solutions, drawing inspiration from analogous efforts in the nuclear arms control field.
- Advancing the Joint Assessment Mechanism: This initiative pursued a robust multi-year effort to advance the concept of a Joint Assessment Mechanism to address the gap in international capabilities to identify the source of pandemics of unknown origins. This work has contributed to international dialogue on discerning pandemic origins and helped shape thinking around future mechanisms for investigating high-consequence biological events
2026
NTI at the Munich Security Conference: Advancing a Safer Future
The Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) joined world leaders and policymakers at the 2026 Munich Security Conference (MSC), where NTI President and CEO Christine E. Wormuth and colleagues hosted events focused on reducing nuclear, biological, and emerging technology threats imperiling humanity.
2025
Past Event
NTI Side Events at the December 2025 BWC Meetings
Palais des Nations Geneva, Switzerland
NTI Supports Tech-Driven Solutions to Modernize BWC Compliance
At the UN General Assembly President Trump announced his administration’s intention to harness artificial intelligence to help uphold the international ban on biological weapons. Using advanced technology to strengthen the Biological Weapons Convention is a promising step and an approach NTI has long supported.
Strengthening Trust in Bioscience Research & Development
Over the past decade, governments, private industry, and academic institutions have increased their investments in bioscience research and development, yielding global benefits. However, these advancements have also increased the risk of deliberate misuse of biology to cause harm.
Enhancing Transparency for Bioscience Research and Development
Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) States Parties have a critical window of opportunity to take concrete steps toward enhancing transparency and building confidence in compliance with the norm against biological weapons development.
NTI at the Biological Weapons Convention: Urging Collective Action to Reduce Biological and AI Risks
NTI’s Global Biological Policy and Programs team will host two side events at the Sixth Session of the Working Group on the Strengthening of the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC).
Past Event
Enhancing Transparency for Bioscience Research & Development Report Launch Event
Palais des Nations, Building E, Room XXII, Geneva, Switzerland
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13:15 – 14:45 CEST
The Next 50 Years: Strengthening the Biological Weapons Convention – Explained
The Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BWC) entered into force 50 years ago, becoming the first multilateral disarmament treaty to ban the production of an entire category of weapons. As the world marks this anniversary, we reflect on the BWC’s importance and outline a path forward to strengthen its effectiveness.
2024
NTI | bio Proposes New Solutions to Prevent Bioweapons Development and Use
During the fifth session of the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) Working Group meetings, NTI | bio presented solutions that could effectively reduce the risk of bioweapons development and use by states and other powerful actors.
Disincentivizing Bioweapons: Theory and Policy Approaches
This essay collection is designed to encourage the exploration and identification of potential solutions to disincentivize states from developing or using biological weapons. The goal of this collection is to bridge theory and practical policy-relevant approaches to develop new approaches to invigorate international efforts to reduce biological threats.
BWC at 50: Taking Bold Steps to Secure the Future
2025 marks 50 years of the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC). It faces significant challenges and there is an urgent need to modernize the BWC, ensuring it keeps pace with scientific developments and reinforces global biosecurity.
Past Event
NTI Events at the December 2024 BWC Meetings
Geneva, Switzerland
NTI | bio Champions Effort to Enhance Transparency to Strengthen the Biological Weapons Convention
The international community remains unprepared for the potential misuse of modern bioscience and biotechnology tools to develop biological weapons. NTI | bio convened more than 30 experts for a workshop on enhancing transparency for bioscience research and development and bolstering confidence in compliance with the Biological Weapons Convention.
NTI Publishes New Details about Tool for Assessing Pandemic Origins
The new paper marks the first time that many details about the structure and function of the JAM are being made publicly available.
2023
NTI | bio Convenes Workshop on Disincentivizing State Bioweapons Development and Use
NTI | bio convened a workshop on “Disincentivizing State Bioweapons Development and Use” a week ahead of the Biological Weapons Convention Working Group meetings in Geneva, Switzerland.
Technical Experts and International Diplomats Convened to Advance the “Joint Assessment Mechanism”
NTI | bio convened two working groups of international biosecurity experts to discuss policy and institutional considerations, and technical operations for the Joint Assessment Mechanism (JAM) to identify the source of high-consequence biological outbreaks of unknown origin.
Identifying Outbreak Origins: How the Joint Assessment Mechanism Can Improve Pandemic Response
NTI is working with international partners to develop a new Joint Assessment Mechanism (JAM) within the office of the UN Secretary-General to rapidly identify outbreak origins. Without the ability to quickly determine the origin of an outbreak, researchers are hampered in their ability to rapidly develop vaccines and other medical countermeasures that can slow the pace of the outbreak, ultimately saving countless lives.
New Digital Report Warns that World is Not Prepared for the Next Pandemic and Urges Bold Action
A new digital report and companion summary detail the findings and recommendations developed from a tabletop exercise held by NTI | bio and the Munich Security Conference.
NTI | bio Experts Outline Strategies for Preventing State Bioweapons Development and Use
The authors write about effective strategies for preventing biological events that could rise to the level of a global catastrophe by disincentivizing states from bioweapons development and use.
NTI | bio Analysis Outlines Benefits of a Joint Assessment Mechanism for Latin America and Caribbean Region
A new analysis published by the Consejo Argentino para las Relaciones Internacionales (CARI) highlights why the Latin America and Caribbean region would benefit from the establishment of a Joint Assessment Mechanism to discern source of high-consequence biological events of unknown origin.
Angela Kane and Jaime Yassif on Discerning “Where the Next Pandemic Will Come From”
In an op-ed for The Hill, NTI Senior Advisor Angela Kane and Vice President for Global Biological Policy and Programs Jaime Yassif acknowledge the importance of the ongoing investigation into the source of the COVID-19 pandemic.
2022
NTI | bio Offers Biosecurity Solutions at the Biological Weapons Convention Review Conference
NTI | bio experts contributed to the 9th Biological Weapons Convention Review Conference in Geneva.
NTI Expert Angela Kane Discusses Global Biosecurity Gaps at SOAS Director’s Lecture
NTI Senior Advisor Angela Kane joined a prestigious lecture series to discuss steps we can take to prepare for the next biological event on the scale of COVID-19.
NTI | bio experts address G7 Global Partnership Working Group in Berlin
NTI experts briefed government representatives at a G7 working group meeting in Berlin.
NTI Experts Call for New Mechanism to Investigate High-Consequence Biological Events of Unknown Origin
NTI experts make the case for establishing a new mechanism to assess biological events of unknown origin.
NTI at the 10th NPT Review Conference
NTI will host three side events at the 10th NPT Review Conference.
Past Event
Investigating High-Consequence Biological Events of Unknown Origin
Conference Room B, United Nations Secretariat Building
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1:15-2:45 PM EDT
NTI | bio and VCDNP Host Discussion on Proposed Mechanism to Investigate High-Consequence Biological Events of Unknown Origin
NTI and the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Nonproliferation (VCDNP) co-hosted a meeting on June 7, 2022 to explore the possibility of establishing a new “Joint Assessment Mechanism” to strengthen UN-system capabilities to investigate high-consequence biological events of unknown origin.
Past Event
Investigating High-Consequence Biological Events of Unknown Origin
Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation
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7 am EDT / 1 pm CEST
Closing the gap: Establishing a new UN mechanism for discerning the source of pandemics of unknown origins
The current conflict in Ukraine has caused severe disruption to regional and global security, including growing concerns about the potential use of unconventional weapons.